Editorial summary
NJ-11 special election swings D+10 over baseline as Silver Bulletin approval hits -18.8 and generic ballot holds D+4.8
Cook Political Report moved NC Senate from Lean Republican to Lean Democrat on 2026-04-25 — the most recent in a four-rating drift toward Democrats since April 13.
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Generic ballot
D+6.4
↓
Latest special (vs 2024)
D+20.3
↑
Net approval
-21.2
↓
Real wages (production)
3.7%
↑
Headline inflation
3.8%
↑
Unemployment (U-3)
4.3%
flat
Gas (AAA/gal)
$4.3
↓
Diesel (AAA/gal)
$5.4
↓
Bars show D / R margin in latest poll average.
GA TU+0.0
ME TU+0.0
MI TU+0.0
NC TU+0.0
Household pressure points by week.
Core inflation
2.7% ↑ from 2.6%
Underemployment (U-6)
8.2% ↑ from 7.8%
Nominal wages
3.6% ↓ from 4.1%
Consumer sentiment
49.8 ↓ from 53.3
S&P 500
7,584.31 ↑ from 7,580.06
10-year Treasury
4.5% ↓ from 4.6%
Dated events on the path to November.
Aug 04 MI/MN Senate D primaries El-Sayed vs. McMorrow; Flanagan vs. Craig in 53d
What changed since you last visited.
- Apr 20 Apr 20: Cook shifts four Senate seats toward Democrats Front matter
- Apr 19 Apr 19: Iran Closes Hormuz Again Front matter
- Apr 14 Apr 14: Gas Hits $4.12 as Hormuz Blockade Holds Front matter
Part · Forces
The Forces Shaping 2026
War, tariffs, DOGE, healthcare, AI anxiety, wealth concentration, DHS dysfunction, and immigration enforcement - eight accelerants creating a compound political shock with no historical parallel in midterm cycles.
Part · Part I
U.S. Senate Races
ME, NC, GA, MI are the battlefield. Tier system tracks all 35 races by flip probability.
Part · Part II
U.S. House Races
435 total. 30+ competitive. Historical pattern: opposition gains 25+ seats in wave environments.